By Swann Collins, investor, writer and consultant in international affairs – Eurasia Business News. January 18, 2025. Article no 1383.
Argentina is poised to achieve a historic trade surplus in 2024, with estimates ranging between $18 billion and $19 billion, surpassing the previous record of $16.89 billion set in 2009. This significant surplus is largely attributed to the policies of President Javier Milei, who took office in December 2023 and has focused on enhancing grain and energy exports.
This is a stark contrast to the previous year’s $7.94 billion deficit. The energy sector, particularly Vaca Muerta’s shale reserves, has significantly contributed.
Milei took office in December 2023 amidst economic turmoil with inflation at a 32-year high of 211%.
Key Factors Contributing to the Trade Surplus
Increased Exports: Argentina’s exports surged due to favorable weather conditions and relaxed currency controls, particularly benefiting the agricultural sector. The country is a leading exporter of processed soy oil and meal, corn, and beef, alongside significant energy exports from its shale reserves in the Vaca Muerta region.
Argentina posted a trade surplus of USD 1.234 billion in November 2024, a sharp turnaround from the USD 559 million deficit recorded a year earlier and well above the estimated USD 700 million surplus. This marks the twelfth consecutive month of positive trade balance after nine months of deficits. The surplus was driven by a 31.6% surge in exports to USD 6.479 billion, led by strong sales of agricultural products and raw materials (56.9%), manufactured goods (15%), and agricultural goods (55.1%).
Meanwhile, imports declined 4.3% to USD 5.245 billion, reflecting reduced shipments of intermediate goods (-13.4%), accessories for capital goods (-5.3%), and fuels and lubricants (-67.6%). (source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC))
Energy Production: For the first time in 15 years, Argentina achieved an energy surplus, with oil production reaching approximately 400,000 barrels per day by Q3 2024. This production is projected to increase significantly by 2030.
Read also : Gold : Build Your Wealth and Freedom
Economic Policies: Milei’s administration implemented austerity measures that have helped strongly reduce inflation from a peak of nearly 300% to 117.8% by year-end 2024. These measures included a substantial devaluation of the peso and cuts in government spending.
Economic Outlook
Despite the positive outlook for 2024, analysts predict that the Argentina’s trade surplus may narrow significantly in 2025 due to anticipated increases in imports as the Argentine peso strengthens and as government policies aim to reduce import taxes. The economic landscape remains challenging, with poverty rates exceeding 50% and ongoing contraction in certain sectors of the economy.
The Milei administration’s economic policies have shown promising results in its first year, with inflation decreasing, signs of economic recovery, and improved consumer and investor confidence. These developments, along with the recent debt repayment, contribute to a more optimistic outlook for Argentina’s economic future. Argentina’s economy is seen expanding by 4.5% in 2025.
Read also : When Argentina was a Wealthy Nation
Argentina’s monthly inflation rate was 2.7% in December, afther slowing to 2.4% in November, the lowest in over four years, the official INDEC statistics agency said on Wednesday. Inflation already slowed to 2.7% in October, the lowest level in three years in a win for the libertarian government of President Javier Milei who came to power almost a year ago promising to pull Argentina out of a dire economic crisis. When he took office in December 2023, monthly inflation surged to 25%.
Economy Minister Luis Caputo said that, despite the slight increase in December, the figure confirms “the continuity of the disinflation process.”
In early January, Argentina successfully made a significant debt repayment of US$4.341 billion to international bondholders, marking a crucial step in President Javier Milei’s efforts to restore investor confidence.
Milei’s approach has garnered attention both domestically and internationally, with figures like Elon Musk praising his efforts. However, the long-term sustainability of these measures remains uncertain as Argentina continues to grapple with high inflation and social challenges.
Read also : Start investing in Bitcoin using Coinbase
Our community already has nearly 145,000 readers!
Subscribe to our Telegram channel
Follow us on Telegram, Facebook and Twitter
© Copyright 2025 – Eurasia Business News. Article no. 1383.
Eurasia Business News 