By Alexander Miller, consultant in energy markets. Eurasia Business News, June 22, 2025. Article n°1576.
Rosneft is factoring an oil price of $45 per barrel into its business plan for this year and $42-43 per barrel for 2026, according to Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin.
“We do not know what geopolitical factors will influence the market. But whatever the price may be, our company, Rosneft, includes $45 in its business plan for this year, and $42-43 for next year. We do not want to depend on this volatility,” he said during an energy panel at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
Rosneft sees several main risks affecting its 2025 oil price plan of $45 per barrel:
Geopolitical Uncertainty: CEO Igor Sechin highlighted the unpredictability of geopolitical factors influencing the oil market, making it difficult to forecast prices accurately. This uncertainty is a key risk factor for Rosneft’s planning.
Global Economic Slowdown and Trade Wars: Russia’s economy ministry anticipates intensified trade wars and a pronounced global economic slowdown, which could reduce global demand and depress oil prices, posing a downside risk to Rosneft’s forecast.
Sanctions and Export Constraints: Ongoing and intensified Western sanctions, especially U.S. measures targeting Russia’s energy sector, including restrictions on petroleum services and shipping, limit Russia’s ability to export oil efficiently. These sanctions increase transaction costs, force wider discounts on Russian oil, and reduce profitability per barrel.
OPEC+ Production Decisions: OPEC+ decisions to increase oil production can lead to downward pressure on prices. Rosneft acknowledged that recent OPEC+ production hikes initially caused oil prices to fall, adding volatility risk to their price assumptions.
Structural and Investment Challenges: Delays in major projects like Rosneft’s Vostok Oil and financial constraints within the Russian oil sector threaten future production capacity, which could indirectly affect market supply dynamics and price stability.
Read also : Tax Management strategies for Digital Nomads
Market Volatility from Middle East Crises: While some experts at SPIEF 2025 predicted potential spikes above $100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, Rosneft remains cautious, recognizing that such crises add to price volatility and risk unpredictability.
Read also : Gold : Build Your Wealth and Freedom
Rosneft’s $45 price forecast for 2025 is based on a conservative planning approach that accounts for geopolitical risks, sanctions impact, global economic uncertainties, OPEC+ policies, and structural challenges within the Russian oil sector
The price of Brent crude oil is currently slightly above $77 per barrel.
Our community already has nearly 150,000 readers!
Subscribe to our Telegram channel
Follow us on Telegram, Facebook and Twitter
© Copyright 2025 – Eurasia Business News. Article no. 1576.
Eurasia Business News 