By William Miller, for Eurasia Business News, July 7, 2025. Article no. 1601.
The European Union will reduce imports of wheat and sugar from Ukraine by 70-80%. This is evidenced by the data of the new trade agreement, negotiations on which between Kyiv and the European Commission ended on June 30. The quotas announced on July 4 will be higher than those provided for in the first free trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine, which has been in force since 2016, but significantly lower than the average annual duty-free imports over the past three years of the conflict.
According to the European Commission, earlier, in the 2024/25 season (from July to June inclusive), the EU imported 4.5 million tons of Ukrainian wheat, 6.5 million tons in the 2023/24 season and 6.1 million tons in the 2022/23 season.
The sugar quota was set at around 100,000 tons, which is more than the pre-war 20,000 tons, but much less than during the current conflict, when the EU canceled all quotas for agricultural products from Ukraine. Then sugar imports to Europe reached 500,000 tons in the 2023/24 growing season and 400,000 tons in 2022/23.
The European Union is reducing the import quotas and reintroducing tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural products starting June 6, effectively rolling back the special trade privileges that had allowed Ukraine to export most agricultural goods duty-free since February 2022.
The temporary Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) that eliminated tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU expired in early June 2025 and cannot be renewed.
The EU and Ukraine have reached a preliminary deal to allow some increased quotas compared to the pre-war levels, but overall the import volumes will be significantly lower than during the tariff-free period.
Quotas for corn will drop from 4.7 million tons to about 650,000 tons annually, poultry from 57,100 to 40,000 tons, and sugar from 109,000 to 40,700 tons.
The new arrangement includes safeguard measures allowing individual EU member states to raise concerns about trade irregularities and requires Ukraine to gradually align with EU standards on sanitary measures, animal welfare, and pesticide use by 2028.
Several “frontline” EU states near Ukraine, including Romania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, have expressed concerns about the impact of Ukrainian agricultural imports on their domestic markets, which has influenced the EU’s decision to revise the trade terms with Ukraine
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Ukrainian officials warn that reverting to pre-war tariff quotas could cost Ukraine up to €3 billion annually in export revenue and negatively impact its economy and war effort.
The EU has pledged to help Ukrainian exporters access traditional non-EU markets and facilitate transit through EU territory without the goods being sold locally, but concrete mechanisms are still unclear. In February 2023, Ukraine had signed a single market agreement with the European Union.
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In summary, the EU is scaling back its wartime trade concessions to Ukraine’s agricultural sector by reinstating tariffs and quotas closer to pre-2022 levels, balancing support for Ukraine with protection of EU farmers’ interests.
As of early July, wheat futures are trading around $5.36 per bushel, with recent prices fluctuating between approximately $5.35 and $5.49 per bushel, reflecting a slight decline of about 1.15% on the day.
The wheat market is currently influenced by expectations of a larger-than-anticipated global wheat harvest in 2025/26, which is forecast to increase global wheat stocks from 264 million tonnes to around 271 million tonnes by the end of the marketing year. This ample supply outlook is putting downward pressure on prices.
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© Copyright 2025 – Eurasia Business News. Article no. 1601.
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