By Alexander Miller, consultant in energy markets. Eurasia Business News, July 11, 2025. Article n°1610.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are on track to reach their highest level in over two years this August 2025, with shipments expected to total approximately 51 million barrels, or 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd). This represents an increase of 4 million barrels compared to July’s allocated volume and marks the highest monthly export figure since April 2023, underscoring the renewed strength of the Saudi-China energy relationship.

The surge is driven by several factors:

Saudi Aramco, the world’s most valuable energy company, is ramping up oil allocations to Chinese refiners, particularly to Sinopec, China’s state-owned refining giant. Sinopec has significantly increased its refining throughput following the completion of scheduled maintenance at several key facilities in Q2 2025.

Multiple new and expanded refining and petrochemical complexes have come online in China’s coastal provinces, fueling increased feedstock demand for Middle Eastern crude oil, especially from light and medium sour grades typical of Saudi supply.

The surge in exports aligns with the OPEC+ alliance’s recent decision to raise collective production by 548,000 bpd in August. This move partially reverses prior voluntary production cuts implemented to stabilize global oil prices amid earlier market uncertainties.

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Saudi Arabia has also raised its official selling prices for August for Asian and European buyers by more than $1 per barrel, reflecting expectations of higher domestic demand and increased Chinese consumption.

China remains the world’s largest importer of Saudi crude, accounting for a significant portion of Riyadh’s global energy exports. The renewed export push signals Saudi Arabia’s strategy to strengthen its market share in China amid growing competition from Russia, Iran, and Brazil.

With global oil dynamics shifting due to sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and energy transition policies, Saudi Arabia is actively defending its role as a reliable energy partner to Asia’s largest economy. This strategy includes:

  • Competitive pricing strategies through flexible OSP adjustments
  • Long-term supply agreements with independent Chinese refiners (teapots)
  • Investment in downstream joint ventures in China’s petrochemical sector

🛢️ Outlook: What’s Next for Saudi-China Oil Trade?

The outlook for Saudi oil exports to China remains bullish for the remainder of 2025, particularly as Chinese industrial activity rebounds and strategic stockpiling resumes ahead of potential supply risks in 2026.

As Beijing pursues energy security and Riyadh aims to ensure stable export revenues while navigating the global energy transition, this partnership will remain a cornerstone of the global crude oil market.

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© Copyright 2025 – Eurasia Business News. Article no. 1610