By Alexander Miller, consultant in energy markets. Eurasia Business News, July 18, 2025. Article n°1635.

Picture : view on Baku, capital city of Azerbaijan. Photo credit : Eurasia Business News.

Iran’s concern over a budding Syria-Azerbaijan axis stems from recent diplomatic and strategic developments that challenge Tehran’s interests in the region. The visit of Syria’s interim president Ahmad al-Sharaa to Baku in July 2025 marked a significant thaw and revitalization of bilateral relations, including an agreement to export Azerbaijani natural gas to Syria via Turkey. This energy cooperation is seen as a crucial solution to Syria’s chronic energy crisis and a shift away from Iran’s traditional influence over Syria.

Furthermore, there are reports of back-channel meetings between Syrian and Israeli officials during this visit, facilitated by Azerbaijan, Israel’s key regional ally, which deeply alarms Iran. Tehran views this emerging trilateral engagement as a strategic challenge, given Israel’s adversarial stance towards Iran.

Iranian media and analysts have expressed fears that the Syria-Azerbaijan partnership may involve the transfer of Syria-based militants (notably those linked to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham faction led by al-Sharaa) to bases in Azerbaijan. This redeployment is perceived as a potential effort to destabilize Iran’s borders and undermine the broader alliance of China, Russia, and Iran in the region. There is speculation that Azerbaijan could serve as a staging ground for hostile operations against Iran and its allies, further escalating security concerns in Tehran.

Additionally, Azerbaijan’s evolving role as a mediator between Syria, Israel, and Turkey, coupled with its energy and reconstruction investments in Syria facilitated by potential easing of U.S. sanctions, underscores Baku’s growing strategic footprint in the Middle East. This realignment places Azerbaijan in a pivotal position that Iran sees as encroaching on its sphere of influence.

Read also : Russia eyes new oil deals in Iraq

Iran fears that the Syria-Azerbaijan rapprochement signals a shifting regional balance, with Azerbaijan’s increasing ties to Israel and Turkey potentially enabling new fronts against Iranian interests, while also threatening Tehran’s longstanding alliance and influence over Syria.

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© Copyright 2025 – Eurasia Business News. Article no. 1635.