By John Meyer, consultant in financial affairs – Eurasia Business News. December 15, 2025. Article no 1931

Picture : View on Moscow, 2025.

Russia’s annual inflation slowed to 6.6% year‑on‑year in November 2025, down from 7.7% in October, marking its lowest level since September 2023.​

The 6.6% figure refers to the change in the consumer price index (CPI) over the previous 12 months, so prices in November 2025 were 6.6% higher than in November 2024. This was slightly below market expectations of about 6.7%, signaling a somewhat faster disinflation than analysts had forecast.​

Drivers of the slowdown

The deceleration came from weaker price growth across major CPI components: food inflation eased to around 7.5%, non‑food goods to about 3.5%, and services to roughly 9.4% year‑on‑year. Monthly inflation also moderated to about 0.4–0.42%, down from 0.5% in October, indicating cooling price pressures on a shorter horizon.​

Policy and outlook

High interest rates set by the Bank of Russia have been a key factor restraining demand and helping to bring inflation down. Forecasts from macro models suggest inflation could edge closer to the central bank’s target range over 2026–2027, assuming tight policy is maintained and no major new shocks hit the economy.

GDP Growth Projections

Russia’s wartime economy produced unexpectedly strong growth in 2023–2024, driven primarily by:

  • Massive defense spending
  • Import substitution
  • State-directed industrial production
  • Reorientation of exports toward Asia and the Global South

However, this momentum is now fading. All major forecasting institutions anticipate a pronounced slowdown in 2025 and only marginal recovery in 2026. Persistent inflation in 2026 should lower consumption and economic growth.

Russia’s Economy Ministry projects real GDP growth of about 1.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, with a gradual pickup later in the decade to roughly 2.5–2.8% annually. The World Bank and European Commission are more cautious, generally seeing growth around 0.8–1.4% per year in 2025–2027 and warning of a drift toward long‑term stagnation.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts GDP expansion of 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026.

Read also : Gold : Build Your Wealth and Freedom

Other institutions like the World Bank project 1.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, citing factors such as labor shortages, declining energy prices, and sanctions.

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© Copyright 2025 – Eurasia Business News. Article no. 1931