By Alexander Miller, consultant in energy markets. Eurasia Business news, December 13, 2022

In November, State members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reduced oil output to 28.83 million barrels per day, which is 744 thousand barrels lower than in October, according to the data of the December OPEC report.

The report also notes that OPEC countries produced even less oil than was expected by the decision of member countries approved in October, when the alliance reduced oil production quotas by 2 million barrels per day. According to OPEC analysts, the countries fulfilled the agreement by 174%.

OPEC continues to adhere to past forecasts of the dynamics of oil demand in the world. According to the report, global demand in 2023 will grow by 2.25 million barrels per day, or about 2.3%. The forecast for the final growth in oil demand this year – by 2.55 million barrels per day year-on-year – has been preserved since last month.

At the same time, analysts raised the forecast for oil production in Russia by 26 thousand barrels per day, to 160 thousand barrels per day. At the end of the outgoing year, production will average 11 million barrels per day, the report says. In the November report, the forecast for oil production in the Russian Federation increased by 69 thousand barrels per day.

On December 5, the “safety ceiling” on oil prices from Russia adopted by the G7 countries, the European Union and Australia came into force. Norway has also joined the agreement. The limits were set at $60 per barrel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not rule out that the response to the setting of the price ceiling will be a decrease in fuel production. At the same time, OPEC+ decided not to reduce production in response to the restrictions imposed.

In October 2022, Russia supplied India with a volume of 946,000 barrels of oil per day, surpassing deliveries from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, The Economic Times reported. According to analysts, in October, Russia accounted for 22% of all crude oil imports into India. Iraq’s share of October deliveries is 20.5%, Saudi Arabia – 16%.

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The Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out that Moscow will not supply energy to countries that make political decisions that contradict the terms of the contracts. His press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said that the Russian authorities were following the discussion of the issue of the oil price limit, but noted that Russia will “be guided solely by its own national interests.”

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