By Paul Jouvenet, jurist and essayist. Eurasia Business News, July 31, 2023

Photo: Image of the XIV BRICS summit on June 22, 2022, with the leaders of the five member states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

India and Brazil oppose China’s proposal to expand the BRICS group to other developing countries. During preparatory discussions for the next BRICS summit, scheduled for August 22-24 in Johannesburg (South Africa). New Delhi and Brasilia have reportedly clashed with Beijing over a possible expansion of the group at the expense of Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg news agency reports, citing eyewitness reports. The admission of new members to the BRICS forum requires the consensus of all its members.

According to the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, the BRICS do not yet have a single mechanism to admit new members. “This is just being worked out, and all aspects are discussed collectively,” she told Vedomosti newspaper.

On May 19, 2022, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed expanding the BRICS group, which currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa:

« China proposes to launch the BRICS enlargement process, study enlargement norms and procedures, and gradually form consensus. »

On June 27, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said at a briefing that Moscow was not opposed to accepting new members into the BRICS, but that “this issue should be approached very carefully” and that “procedures and requirements for potential candidates” should be determined. Current members of the alliance represent more than 42% of the world’s population, 23% of global GDP and 18% of world trade.

In June, Ethiopia formally applied to join the BRICS group.

Two-dozen states would want to join the BRICS, which raises concerns in the US administration and in Europe. The West fears that the BRICS economic and monetary alliance has a chance to become an alternative to the US, the G7 and the European Union.

The issue of BRICS enlargement has received a new impetus from May 2022, after the two years of pandemic in 2020 and 2021 and the geopolitical upheavals of the first quarter of 2022 (war in Ukraine).

The BRICS summit is scheduled to be held Aug. 22-24 amid deteriorating relations between China and the United States due to the rivalry between the two states in Southeast Asia and trade wars.

In early June, a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers was held in Cape Town, South Africa. At the summit, the five member states also met with representatives of ten southern states (developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America), who expressed interest in joining the alliance. These include Argentina, Bangladesh, Iran, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Comoros, Cuba, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In total, according to South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, 13 states have submitted formal applications for membership.

Saudi authorities are interested in developing ties with BRICS, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said in Cape Town. The official said that “the Kingdom remains the BRICS’ largest trading partner in the Middle East. (…) The total volume of trade with the BRICS countries increased from $81 billion in 2017 to $128 billion in 2021 and exceeded $160 billion in 2022.”

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Brazil would oppose the admission of new members, as it does not want to harm its relations with Western states. In addition, the Brazilian side proposes to introduce a step-by-step procedure through the “observer state” and “partner country” format before requests for promotion from new member states are considered. At the same time, Brasilia is not opposed to Indonesia’s accession to the BRICS.

In turn, India would like to see strict rules adopted to join the BRICS.

According to lawyer and essayist Paul Jouvenet, New Delhi may fear a dilution of its influence within the BRICS in the event of new accessions.

South Africa would support discussions on various accession options and would not oppose enlargement to include new member states.

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In addition, New Delhi has advanced the idea that BRICS countries should focus on democratic states with emerging economies, such as Nigeria and Argentina. While Saudi Arabia – a monarchical state – does not meet these parameters, said one of Bloomberg’s interlocutors. The Saudi kingdom’s membership in the BRICS would allow Riyadh to diversify its foreign economic relations and weaken its dependence on the United States. China recently mediated a dramatic diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Brazilian public opinion has a bad image of China, mainly among supporters of right-wing parties opposed to communism. Former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro blamed Chinese authorities for the global coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021. This bad image of Beijing limits the room for maneuver of the new President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, elected in November 2022, in his negotiations with the BRICS.

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In India, the authorities fear that China’s position will be excessively strengthened by the accession of new members to the BRICS. New Delhi has fewer economic and political resources to promote its national interests in the world than Beijing. On the other hand, it is important for Indians that the alliance remains a privileged closed club of five countries, potential contenders for the title of superpower, so that its political influence is not diluted. India, unlike China, is not a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and BRICS membership partly compensates for the absence of this status.

Brazil and India fear that after the admission of new BRICS members, the forum will turn into an anti-Western platform and also lose its economic coherence, which they are not interested in.

Read also: Saudi Arabia negotiates to join BRICS bank

If New Delhi and Brasilia aim to maintain the status quo, Beijing and Moscow want to get the BRICS to become an alliance capable of adopting and implementing an alternative financial system to existing Western institutions. On this point, the positions of Moscow and Beijing coincide. The Russian authorities have long been determined to build a multipolar world in which institutions such as the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the BRICS, represented an alternative to the IMF, the World Bank and the G7. At the same time, this would strengthen the position of the countries of the Global South in their negotiations with the West.

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Finally, the creation of a new currency within the framework of the BRICS will be discussed at the next summit from August 22 to 24 in Johannesburg, South Africa, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after a conversation with Angolan President João Lourenço on January 25.

BRICS countries are working on the issue of creating a new international currency based on the currencies of BRICS member states, which can become a new reserve currency, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the June 2022 summit in Beijing.

The holding of the BRICS summit will provide answers on the accession criteria, the candidate states and the common currency project.

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© Copyright 2023 – Paul Jouvenet, jurist and essayist.