By Swann Collins, investor, writer and consultant in international affairs – Eurasia Business News, August 12, 2022

View on the Radisson hotel in Moscow, 2018. In the background, the towers of the financial district Moskva City, with headquarters of large Russian corporations. Photo credit : Swann Collins, 2017.

Russia’s GDP in the second quarter of 2022 decreased by 4.0% compared to the second quarter of 2021. Such a preliminary assessment was published today by Rosstat, the Russian federal statistic agency.

The data of Rosstat coincided with the estimate of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, which previously estimated the decline in GDP in the II quarter also by 4.0% in annual terms.

“The index of the physical volume of GDP in the second quarter of 2022 relative to the corresponding period of 2021, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 96.0%. Indicators of industry statistics were used in the calculation, some of which affected the decrease in physical volume: wholesale turnover (minus 15.3% in the second quarter), retail turnover (minus 9.8%), water supply, sanitation, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities (minus 8.9%), passenger turnover (minus 5.3%), manufacturing industries (minus 3.3%), cargo turnover (minus 2.9%),” Rosstat said in a commentary.

The preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2022 was made on the basis of the production method.

As reported, in the first quarter of 2022, Rosstat estimated russia’s GDP growth at 3.5% compared to the first quarter of 2021.

Rosstat has not yet given its assessment of the dynamics of GDP as a whole for the first half of the year. The Ministry of Economic Development previously estimated a decrease in GDP in the first quarter by 0.5% compared with the first quarter of 2021.

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More detailed data on the GDP of the Russian Federation for the II quarter Rosstat will be released on September 9.

As reported, Russia’s GDP in the IV quarter of 2021 grew by 5.0% in annual terms, in the third quarter of 2021 – by 4.0%, in the II quarter of 2021 – by 10.5%, in the first quarter of 2021 it decreased by 0.3%. In general, in 2021, Russia’s GDP increased by 4.7%.

In July, the Bank of Russia improved its forecast for GDP dynamics for 2022 – it expects a decrease in the country’s GDP in 2022 by 4-6% instead of a fall of 8-10% according to the previous April forecast.

At the same time, the Russian central bank somewhat worsened expectations for 2023 and expects a decline in GDP next year by 1-4% (in the April forecast it expected a decrease of 0-3%).

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Analysts expected in early August a decline in Russian GDP in 2022 amouting to 5.0% and a decrease of 1.8% in 2023.

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development will soon clarify its version of the May forecast, which is currently irrelevant (a decline of 7.8% in 2022). Earlier, the ministry noted that their working estimates are close to the new forecasts of the Bank of Russia.

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© Copyright 2022 – Swann Collins, investor, writer and consultant in international affairs.